BMTS415
Probability and Probabilistic Models

ECTS Value: 5 ECTS

Contact Hours: 25

Self Study Hours: 60

Assessment Hours: 40

 

Overall Objectives and Outcomes

The unit aims to first introduce the course participants to basic ideas on probability. The unit will then cover different ways of showing a sample space such as Venn Diagrams and Tree Diagrams as well choosing which type of sample space is most suited for a particular situation. This unit shall then focus on distribution functions for Discrete and Continuous Random Variables with particular importance being given to graphical interpretation.

The following Probability Distributions will be discussed:

  • The Binomial Distribution
  • The Hypergeometric Distribution
  • The Poisson Distribution
  • The Normal Distribution

By the end of this module, the learner will be able to:

 

Competences

    • a)Represent and interpret complex datasets using Venn Diagrams and Tree Diagrams demonstrating a strong grasp of  relationships and probabilities within the data;
    • b)Apply and visualize the Complement and Addition Rules on Venn Diagrams ensuring a comprehensive understanding of probability theory;
    • c)Critically evaluate and select the most appropriate measure of Central Tendency based on the nature and distribution of the dataset;
    • d)Develop curriculum related material to be used to explain probability in the classroom;
    • e)Plan different activities to maximise students’ understanding of probability.
  •  

Knowledge

      • a)Distinguish between discrete and continuous data;
      • b)Distinguish between empirical and theoretical probability;
      • c)List the benefits and drawbacks of both empirical and theoretical probability;
      • d)Describe the meaning of dependent and independent events;
      • e)Identify situations that involve permutations and those that involve combinations;
      • f)Describe the meaning of mathematical expectation, variance and standard deviation;
      • g)Distinguish between the Binomial, Hypergeometric, Poisson and Normal Distributions.
      •  

Skills

      • a)Apply the formula for Conditional Probability to solve complex problems, demonstrating an ability to identify and analyse dependent events within various mathematical contexts;
      • b)Use the appropriate formulae for permutations and combinations to accurately determine outcomes in both simple and complex scenarios;
      • c)Use binomial coefficients in combinations to solve advanced problems illustrating a thorough understanding of their role in probability theory and algebraic expressions;
      • d)Interpret and analyse a Venn Diagram and a Tree Diagram to extract data and probabilities;
      • e)Work with distribution functions for discrete and continuous random variables applying them to diverse probability models and interpreting their significance in various statistical contexts;
      • f)Apply different Probability Distributions selecting and utilising the appropriate distribution model.

Assessment Methods

This module will be assessed through: Class Contribution, Presentation

Suggested Readings

Core Reading List

  1. Debnath, Lokenath & Basu, Kanadpriya. (2015). A short history of probability theory and its applications. International Journal of Mathematical Education in Science and Technology. 46. 10.1080/0020739X.2014.936975.
  2. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271856948_A_short_history_of_probability_theory_and_its_applications?enrichId=rgreq-cf982135283181b175569f9b2444fdf1-XXX&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI3MTg1Njk0ODtBUzoyMTU3MTM3NTYyNTgzMDRAMTQyODQ0MTU3NTcyOA%3D%3D&el=1_x_2#full-text
  3. Baskakova Elena & He Alice. (May 2022). Probability Theory – Why you are Falsely Convicted, Lonely, and in Debt
  4. https://math.mit.edu/research/highschool/primes/circle/documents/2022/Elena%20&%20Alice.pdf
  5. Huygens, C. (1657). Reasoning in Games of Chance. Translated by Ian Bruce (2013) Originally published as *De Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae*.
  6. Batanero, C., Álvarez-Arroyo, R. Teaching and learning of probability. ZDM Mathematics Education56, 5–17 (2024).
  7. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11858-023-01511-5
  8. Ugoni, Antony & Walker, Bruce. (1995). AN INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS.
  9. Gage, J., Spielgelhalter, D. (2016) Teaching Probability. Cambridge University Press.

Supplementary Reading List

  1. Cardano G. (1663) The Book on Games of Chance. (originally written ca. 1564)
  2. Seema Amit Agarwal. (December 2022). Use of Probability in Statistics: a Study. *International Journal of Creative Research Thoughts*. Volume 10 (Issue https://ijcrt.org/papers/IJCRT2212316.pdf
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